Several days ago, the New York Times wrote this piece (excerpt below) describing the current situation in Afghanistan. It is as predictable as it is depressing. The inevitable end of the US-Afghan War is upon us. It is exactly 20 years since President George W. Bush – in actions widely applauded by left and right – sent forces to Afghanistan to overthrown the Taliban (who had given Osama Bin Laden a safe and secure location to launch the 9/11 attacks). Operation Enduring Freedom was “over” in a matter of days as the Taliban government toppled like a house of cards. Gosh, we all thought, that was easy. But of course, it wasn’t easy and it was assuredly not over. To date 2,352 American soldiers have been killed and over 20 thousand injured. Another thousand Coalition troops have been killed. In addition, an estimated 65 thousand Afgan and Pakistani police and military were killed in the fighting while civilian casualties have been approximately 60 thousand. When the US finally exits, another round of terrible violence should be expected as the knives come out for those Afghans percieved as assisting the US operations. We’ve been here before, we know how it ends.
The gist of the current situation is that President Trump signed a deal with the Taliban and with the Afghan government to withdraw all of the remaining 2.500 US troops by May 1st of this year. As occurs in all situations where one side holds all the cards (the Taliban) and the other side none (the US), this wasn’t really a negotiation. Instead, it was simply a fig leaf, a cover, an excuse, to hide the US government’s shame and embarrassment of abandoning an ally to a terrible fate, abandoning a fight after having spent billions and lost thousands of lives, essentially giving up and saying, collectively (all together now), “too hard”.
It would almost be a relief if we could sit here today and say, “that was a colossal mistake” and “we should never do that again!” But can we? Should we? The arguments for going to Afghanistan in 2001 are still arguably true today. Military hawks argued that we have to “fight them there” (Islamic terrorists) or we’d have to find them on Main Street USA. Humanitarians argued we have a moral obligation to help millions of Afghan’s living in brutal repression under the Taliban. Who do we save, who do we rescue, who do we punish? We sat by and watched (for the most part) as hundreds of thousands of Syrian civilians were bombed and shot, month after month after month. The ineluctable truth is that there are no right answers and no good options. Why do we always seem to forget this when the next debate on foreign intervention comes around?
The British left Afghanistan in 1842 at the end of the First Anglo-Afghan War (there were three!) after 16,000 troops and civilians were massacred in the infamous Retreat from Kabul. The lone survivor, assistant surgeon William Brydon, was memorialized in this famous painting, Remnants of an Army by Elizabeth Butler. It’s come to symbolize how Afghanistan is viewed as the “graveyard of empires”. On May 1st or sometime not too long thereafter, we will have new images, new symbols of superpower impotence after the US abandons Afghanistan, which will teach us the very same lesson as Remnants of an Army. The lesson never learned.
The Taliban Close In on Afghan Cities, Pushing the Country to the Brink
The New York Times · February 15, 2021
PANJWAI, Afghanistan — The Taliban have been encroaching on key cities around Afghanistan for months, threatening to drive the country to its breaking point and push the Biden administration into a no-win situation just as the United States’ longest war is supposed to be coming to an end.
Around the northern city of Kunduz, despite the winter’s fierce cold, the Taliban have taken outposts and military bases, using small armed drones to terrorize Afghan troops. In neighboring Pul-i-Khumri, they have seized important highways in a stranglehold of the city, threatening main lifelines to Kabul, the country’s capital.
And in the city of Kandahar, a bedrock of historic and political importance and an economic hub for the country’s south, Taliban fighters have pummeled the surrounding districts, and moved closer to taking the provincial capital than they have in more than a decade.
The Taliban’s brazen offensive has put the Biden administration into a dangerous political bind. Under the deal struck by President Donald J. Trump with the Taliban last year, all foreign troops — including the remaining 2,500 American service members who support Afghanistan’s beleaguered army and security forces — are scheduled to withdraw by May 1, leaving the country in an especially precarious state.
If the Biden administration honors the withdrawal date, officials and analysts fear the Taliban could overwhelm what’s left of the Afghan security forces and take control of major cities like Kandahar in a push for a complete military victory or a broad surrender by the Afghan government in the ongoing peace negotiations.
But if the United States delays its withdrawal deadline, as a congressionally appointed panel recommended on Feb. 3, the Taliban would most likely consider the 2020 deal with the United States void,which could lead to renewed attacks on American and NATO troops, and potentially draw the United States deeper into the war to defend Afghan forces, whom the Taliban could still retaliate vigorously against.
“The threat of Taliban military victories, especially in an area as symbolic and strategic as Kandahar, makes it difficult for the Biden administration to swallow the risks of finalizing a troop withdrawal,” said Andrew Watkins, a senior analyst on Afghanistan for the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based conflict resolution organization. “Pulling out might be politically impossible if Kandahar was on the nightly news.”